It is no secret that the US “trade war” with the potential for ever-increasing tariffs, has a direct impact on the current state and future of supply chain operations. With the impending holiday season approaching fast, it is important to note how these two macroeconomic trends will intersect.
Deloitte has published its 2019 holiday sales forecast which, somewhat surprisingly, shows an increase of up to 4.5% compared to last year’s 3.1%. Economic Forecaster Daniel Bachman noted that last year’s numbers did not exactly meet expectations as we experienced a federal government shutdown, as well as declines in the stock market, which more than likely played party to the shortfall.
This year though, Bachman is crediting the expected growth to a combination of new job creation and near record-low unemployment rates. “The economy is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. Additionally, we continue to see consumer confidence elevated, which also helps boost holiday spending.”
The correlation between a busy holiday season and supply chain operations was highlighted through the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals in mid-September when the cross-sections between multi-platform operations identified many retail factors actively influencing the full circle of logistics; from planning, to inventory, to transportation, to supply chain optimization. The impact a busy spending season has on your operations is not to be ignored.